On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan

South Sudan is once again on the brink of war. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is bombing civilians and detaining the opposition, while foreign embassies close and evacuate staff. The Ugandan army has installed itself in Juba, the country’s capital, to assist Kiir’s regime’s suppression of the opposition. Both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese army are also now participating in the conflict inside South Sudan. While Kiir has appointed a successor, Benjamin Bol Mel, he may not have the political capital to take over. The current conflict may be a prelude for a much more destructive civil war.

On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—examines what led South Sudan to delay elections scheduled for December 2024 and considers the likely ensuing civil war. It focuses on the place of the Tumaini Peace Initiative in South Sudan’s political compact, the effects of the war in Sudan on politics in the country, Kiir’s contested succession, and the violence scarring the region.